The Sweet 16 of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is often a stage for Cinderella stories, where underdogs from smaller conferences capture the nation’s attention with improbable upsets. However, the 2025 tournament presents a stark contrast. For the first time since the expansion of the tournament in 1985, no teams from mid-major conferences have advanced to the Sweet 16. This absence raises a critical question: Has the era of the Cinderella team come to an end?
This article explores the changing landscape of college basketball, examining the factors that may be contributing to the decline of Cinderella stories. From the influence of the transfer portal and NIL deals to the financial advantages of major conferences, we delve into the forces reshaping the tournament and analyze whether the magic of March Madness is fading away. We’ll consider perspectives from coaches and players, weigh the impact of these changes, and ultimately assess the future of upsets in college basketball.
The New Normal: A Transfer Portal-Driven Landscape
The absence of traditional Cinderella teams in this year’s Sweet 16 can be attributed to the rise of the transfer portal and the impact of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals. Players who excel at mid-major programs now have the opportunity to transfer to larger schools without penalty, seeking greater visibility, better resources, and lucrative NIL opportunities. This trend has created a situation where talented players are increasingly concentrated in major conference programs, making it more difficult for mid-majors to compete.
Dan Wolken of USA TODAY Sports notes this shift, stating,
‘For better or worse, this is the new normal: Players at lower levels will perform well, the transfer portal will give them a chance to play somewhere else without sitting out a year and the opportunity to make significant money through name, image and likeness will usually draw them to schools with the most money in the major conferences.’
This quote encapsulates the core issue: the allure of playing for a major program, combined with the financial incentives of NIL deals, is reshaping the landscape of college basketball and potentially diminishing the chances of Cinderella teams emerging in the NCAA Tournament.
Financial Disparity: The SEC and Big Ten Advantage
The financial advantages enjoyed by teams in the Power Five conferences (SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, and Pac-12) are a significant factor in their dominance. These conferences generate substantial revenue through television deals, ticket sales, and merchandise, allowing them to invest heavily in their basketball programs. This includes state-of-the-art facilities, top-notch coaching staffs, and extensive recruiting budgets, all of which contribute to their ability to attract and retain top talent.
Michigan coach Dusty May acknowledges the impact of these financial disparities, suggesting that while Cinderella stories may not be entirely extinct, they will likely become less frequent. Nate Oats, the coach of Alabama, echoes this sentiment, noting that the increased revenue share and NIL opportunities at higher levels make it difficult for mid-major programs to retain their best players.
The concentration of resources in the major conferences creates an uneven playing field, making it increasingly challenging for mid-majors to compete for championships and produce those memorable Cinderella runs that have defined March Madness.
Player Empowerment: Chasing Dreams and Opportunities
While some lament the decline of loyalty in college sports, the transfer portal and NIL deals have empowered players to make decisions that are in their best interests. Players who may have been overlooked by major programs out of high school now have the opportunity to showcase their talents at mid-major schools and, if successful, transfer to a bigger stage to pursue their dreams.
Frankie Fidler, who transferred from Omaha to Michigan State, exemplifies this trend. Fidler recognized that his time at Omaha had run its course and that transferring to a major program would provide him with the opportunity to chase a bigger dream. Similarly, Jaylen Murray, who played for Saint Peter’s during their Elite Eight run, felt that he was good enough to compete in a league like the SEC and transferred to Ole Miss to prove himself.
These players are not simply chasing NIL dollars; they are seeking to maximize their potential, compete against the best, and achieve their goals in a rapidly changing college basketball landscape.
Historical Context: Is This Really That Different?
While the current landscape of college basketball may seem drastically different, it’s important to consider the historical context. The financial advantages of major conferences have always existed, and talented players have always sought opportunities to play at the highest level. The transfer portal and NIL deals have simply formalized and accelerated these trends.
Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd raises a valid point, questioning whether the absence of mid-majors in this year’s Sweet 16 is simply an anomaly or a sign of a more permanent shift. Just two years ago, Princeton, Florida Atlantic, and San Diego State all made deep runs in the tournament, demonstrating that Cinderella stories are still possible. It’s too early to definitively say that the era of the underdog is over.
The NCAA Tournament has always been a bit of a random results generator, and some years will inevitably produce chalkier brackets. It’s important to avoid drawing definitive conclusions based on a single tournament and to consider the historical context of college basketball.
The Mid-Major Talent Pool: Still Fueling Great Teams
Despite the challenges facing mid-major programs, there is still an abundance of talent at these schools. Players like Alijah Martin (Florida), Vladislav Goldin (Michigan), and Johnell Davis (Arkansas), who were all key contributors to Florida Atlantic’s Final Four run, are now proving themselves at major programs. This demonstrates that mid-majors are still capable of developing talented players who can compete at the highest level.
Dusty May believes that a team will still emerge from nowhere to capture the nation’s attention, but that it may look different than in the past. Perhaps Cinderella teams will be built around transfers from other mid-major programs or overlooked recruits who develop into stars.
The talent pool in mid-major basketball remains deep, and these programs will continue to play a vital role in developing players who can contribute to great teams, whether at their original school or after transferring to a major program.
Mindset Over Talent: The Key to Upsets
Jaylen Murray, reflecting on Saint Peter’s Elite Eight run, emphasizes the importance of mindset over talent. He argues that while talent is certainly a factor, it’s the mental toughness, belief, and unwavering determination that truly separate Cinderella teams from the rest.
Murray suggests that the players on Saint Peter’s were not necessarily more talented than their opponents, but they possessed an unshakeable belief in themselves and a refusal to lose. This mindset allowed them to overcome adversity, execute their game plan, and ultimately achieve the improbable.
While the transfer portal, NIL deals, and financial disparities may make it more difficult for Cinderella teams to emerge, the power of mindset and unwavering belief in oneself should not be underestimated. These qualities can still propel underdogs to unexpected victories in the NCAA Tournament.
Conclusion: Cinderella on Hiatus or Gone for Good?
The absence of mid-major teams in the 2025 Sweet 16 raises questions about the future of Cinderella stories in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. The rise of the transfer portal, the influence of NIL deals, and the financial advantages of major conferences have undoubtedly reshaped the landscape of college basketball, making it more difficult for underdogs to compete.
While some may fear that the era of the Cinderella team is over, it’s important to remember that the NCAA Tournament has always been unpredictable, and upsets are an inherent part of its magic. It’s possible that the 2025 tournament is simply an anomaly and that Cinderella stories will return in the years to come.
Ultimately, whether Cinderella is gone for good or merely on hiatus remains to be seen. The coming years will reveal whether the structural changes in college sports have permanently altered the playing field or whether the magic of March Madness can still produce those improbable and unforgettable moments that define the tournament.
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