The anticipation surrounding Connor Bedard’s arrival in the NHL was immense. Dubbed a ‘generational talent,’ expectations were sky-high. However, as he navigates his sophomore season, some observers express disappointment. While he shows flashes of brilliance, Bedard’s path to superstardom appears less straightforward than predicted. This article explores Bedard’s journey, comparing him to other top NHL draft picks, and examines the realities of building a career in professional hockey.
It’s crucial to remember that the road to the top is rarely a smooth, linear progression. Many NHL legends faced early challenges and setbacks before reaching their full potential. By analyzing Bedard’s performance against historical data and similar talents, we can gain a clearer understanding of his trajectory and what the future may hold.
The Generational Talent Label: A High Bar
The term ‘generational talent’ implies a player with the potential to dominate the league for a decade or more. Last year, Bedard’s rookie season earned glowing reviews. While the term generational talent can be superfluous, it’s a fun and hopeful way to connect past, present, and future prodigies. I’ve defined it previously as: a player with such unmistakable promise and immediate impact that they could reasonably be the NHL’s best player over a 10-year span.
Comparisons were quickly drawn to Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid, players who immediately transformed their respective franchises. However, Bedard’s production hasn’t reached those lofty heights. A neutral scoring climate shows Bedard is not Crosby or McDavid — and it’s not particularly close.
Unlike Bedard, none of the generational forwards took any early steps backward as point producers — any such year-to-year dips were merely fluctuations among dominant seasons. This raises questions about whether the ‘generational’ label was premature.
Help Wanted?: Supporting Cast and Team Dynamics
One argument is that Bedard lacks the supporting cast necessary to thrive. Crosby and McDavid immediately became focal points, even on struggling teams. They elevated their teammates and drove offensive production despite limited support.
However, Bedard plays most often as a sophomore with Tyler Bertuzzi (five-time 20-goal scorer), Ryan Donato (33-goal pace), and skilled rookie Frank Nazar. Two time zones west, San Jose‘s Macklin Celebrini has been excellent with a mix of Tyler Toffoli, William Eklund, and fellow rookie Will Smith — a comparable group.
The question is whether Bedard can become an ‘unyielding force’ regardless of his linemates, a hallmark of true generational talents. He just hasn’t been an unyielding force that can thrive with anyone. Yet, anyway.
The #1 Picks: A Broader Perspective
To gain a more realistic outlook, it’s helpful to compare Bedard to other first-overall draft picks in the salary cap era. This group includes a mix of superstars, solid contributors, and outright busts. Evaluating their trajectories can provide a more nuanced understanding of Bedard’s progress.
The average #1 forward scored seven more points from rookie to sophomore: Bedard’s eight-point drop is nowhere near those of Nail Yakupov (25 points), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (21 points), or Nathan MacKinnon (16 points). Recent history tells us it’s not unprecedented among top prospects finding their way in the NHL.
The average #1 forward leapt another 10 points in their third season: Setbacks in Year 3 have been extremely rare. This bodes well for Bedard.
Past, Present, Future: Learning from Others
Several players offer hopeful roadmaps for Bedard, demonstrating that delayed development doesn’t preclude future success. We’ll plot Bedard’s progress as a scorer against the trio by age.
Patrick Kane (Age: 36)An undersized, skilled, Calder-winning forward drafted first overall playing in Chicago? We know a guy. While Kane was a star on a Cup winner in his age-21 season, it’s revisionist history to think the future Hall of Famer’s evolution was linear. At 23, his adjusted point pace (73) on a mini-dynasty matches Bedard’s rookie season (72). Kane’s marquee season was at 27, which tells us to be patient with Bedard.
Nathan MacKinnon (Age: 29)MacKinnon, the reigning MVP, experienced frequent setbacks over his first four seasons. Like Bedard, he breezily won the Calder at 18 and his output regressed as a sophomore. Then came questions about his ceiling and if the hype was warranted. In Year 5, MacKinnon exploded and has yet to come back to Earth. The visual tells us that even his fourth season (59) was less productive than each of Bedard’s first two.
Jack Hughes (Age: 23)Despite his challenges staying on the ice, Hughes is the real deal. He’s scored at an adjusted 90-point pace each of the last four seasons and scored 43 goals in his age-21 season. The reaction to Hughes’ first two years in the NHL commonly featured the “B” word — bust. Not strong enough. His tricks won’t work here. Year 3 — Bedard in 2025-26 — was when Hughes leveled up offensively in a big way.
Closing Thoughts: A Unique Path
Bedard is a unique player… ultra skilled but not able to consistently generate scoring chances. Yet. On the smaller side, but not unusually fast. Yet. A dangerous shot but not an elite finisher. Yet.
Maybe Bedard’s path is like MacKinnon’s. Maybe he mirrors Taylor Hall — an MVP but only briefly an all-world talent.
Ultimately, Connor Bedard’s journey is his own. He faces immense pressure and scrutiny, but he possesses the talent and work ethic to develop into a superstar. It’s important to allow him the time and space to grow at his own pace, without the burden of unrealistic expectations.
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