Rain Returns to East Tennessee: What to Expect

After a warm and sunny Easter weekend in East Tennessee, changes are on the horizon. Tod Hyslop is tracking a shift in the weather pattern, bringing much-needed rain to the region. This article breaks down what you can expect in the coming days, from the timing of the rain to the potential for stronger storms, and what the forecast looks like for the rest of the week. With the dry spell coming to an end, it’s time to prepare for a more humid and unsettled weather period.

The arrival of rain is not only a welcome change from the recent warmth but also crucial for replenishing moisture levels in the area. We’ll delve into the details of the approaching frontal boundary, its speed, and how it will affect different parts of East Tennessee. Plus, we’ll provide insights into the chances for additional rainfall throughout the week, ensuring you stay informed and prepared for whatever the weather may bring.

Remember the Easter Weekend?

The recent Easter weekend brought summer-like warmth and plenty of sunshine to East Tennessee. Many people enjoyed the beautiful weather, but some may have also experienced varying degrees of sunburn. The temperatures were so warm that they almost broke long-standing records, missing the mark by just a few degrees. Along with the warmth, there was also a noticeable increase in humidity, making it feel much more like the middle of summer.

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The dry weather pattern is about to change as a frontal boundary presses east through the Mississippi Valley and into the mid-South. However, this change will be slow to come, as a strong upper-level low-pressure system that brought days of heavy rain, severe thunderstorms, and tornadoes to the southern Plains shifts rapidly northeast through the Great Lakes into Canada.

What to Expect from the Upcoming Rain

The upper-level pressure center is the driving force behind the cold front’s movement into East Tennessee. However, the front will slow down tonight into Monday as the pressure center races north and the upper-level steering winds weaken. During the winter, cold fronts can move across Tennessee in 6-8 hours. This boundary will move so slowly that it will take about 24 hours to travel from the Mississippi River to the Smoky Mountains.

Therefore, the region will remain dry tonight through early Monday afternoon. The first area of showers and thunderstorms will advance onto the Cumberland Plateau of southeast Kentucky and northern middle Tennessee. The leading edge of the convective line may not break into the Tennessee Valley and the Knoxville area until 4-5 p.m., and the foothills of the Appalachians until as late as 7-8 p.m.

If you have outdoor plans on Monday, the morning hours and maybe even the mid-afternoon should be safe from rain, depending on your location. Cloud cover will be thicker on Monday, which will take the edge off the heat. However, temperatures should still break 80 degrees in most areas due to the late arrival of the front.

Storm Intensity and Rainfall Amounts

While some of the storms may become relatively strong with gusts as high as 30-40 mph, an outbreak of severe thunderstorms is not anticipated with this convective event. The area hopes to pick up as much rain as possible from this frontal push, as there has been no rainfall in the past five days. Model forecasts indicate that much of the area may receive between one half and three quarters of an inch of rain, mainly due to the extended residence time of the airmass boundary in the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachian region.

Looking Ahead: Rainfall Chances Throughout the Week

The atmosphere will be configured for additional chances for needed rainfall throughout the week, partially due to the early week front moving only a short distance south of the Tennessee border through Tuesday. In fact, a few showers and a thunderstorm or two may continue to develop over southern sections of the viewing area including Bledsoe, Rhea, Meigs, McMinn, and Monroe counties through the morning hours on Tuesday due to the close proximity of the front and its ability to generate atmospheric lift.

In terms of rainfall, the rest of the week will have more of a typical summer feel, as we move into more of a diurnal cycle of convective rainfall. This typically forms over the higher terrain features, including the Cumberland Plateau and the southern Appalachians, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours when surface temperatures are at their warmest.

Superimposed on top of this cycle, there appears to be a slightly higher chance for a few showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, and again later Friday night into Saturday, as a couple of upper-level short wave features build across the region. These features organize lift and help provide a little more buoyancy for the development of storms, due to the slightly cooler air they push across the region in the mid-levels of the atmosphere.

Temperature Outlook

In this weather regime, which will be dominated by a southerly low-level wind flow, both maximum and minimum temperatures will be several degrees above normal. Morning lows will hover around 60 degrees, and afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s. This will provide a prelude to summer even before May arrives!

In Conclusion: Embrace the Coming Rain

East Tennessee is set to experience a shift from the recent warm and dry conditions to a more humid and unsettled weather pattern. The arrival of rain, while potentially disruptive to outdoor plans, is a welcome change that will help replenish moisture levels and provide relief from the persistent sunshine. Stay informed about the timing and intensity of the rain, and be prepared for potential thunderstorms.

As the week progresses, the chances for additional rainfall will continue, with a more typical summer-like pattern of afternoon and evening showers. While temperatures will remain above normal, the rain will help keep things in check. Stay tuned to FYM News for the latest updates and stay safe!