The upcoming New Jersey gubernatorial primary is shaping up to be a fascinating test of traditional political power. For decades, the ‘county line’—the endorsement of county Democratic organizations—has been a near-guarantee of success in Garden State elections. This year, however, the influence of these endorsements is under scrutiny, particularly as it relates to Rep. Mikie Sherrill’s campaign. Sherrill has secured a significant number of county endorsements, but recent changes to ballot laws may diminish the impact of these endorsements.
This article will explore the dynamics of the New Jersey governor’s race, focusing on how Sherrill’s campaign strategy leverages traditional county endorsements in a modern political landscape. We will examine the potential impact of new ballot laws, the strategies of other candidates, and the broader implications for the future of machine politics in New Jersey.
The Traditional Power of the County Line
In New Jersey Democratic primaries, the county line has historically been a decisive factor. Candidates endorsed by the county Democratic organizations enjoyed preferred ballot position, essentially guaranteeing them an advantage. This meant running at the top of the Democratic county organization’s official line, an official-looking and impossible-to-miss column that would also include a host of familiar local names running for lower offices.
Steve Kornacki notes, ‘What has traditionally made these endorsements so meaningful is the preferred ballot position that came with them. An endorsed candidate would run at the top of the Democratic county organization’s official line… Names of the other candidates would be listed by themselves, often in the far reaches of the ballot.’ The datawrapper.de iframe in the original article illustrates the geographic distribution of endorsements in the current race, visualizing Sherrill’s significant lead in securing county support.
This system created a predictable outcome, with candidates running off the line almost never winning. The last open Democratic gubernatorial primary was, when the largest county organizations threw their support to now-Gov. Phil Murphy.
The Impact of New Ballot Laws
However, a court ruling and a new law in March have disrupted this traditional dynamic. The line is gone, and county parties can no longer list all their endorsed candidates in a special column. Primary ballots now list candidates by the office they are seeking. One of the questions heading into June’s primary is how much this has diminished the power of county endorsements.
These changes aim to level the playing field, preventing the entrenched advantage of county-backed candidates. The shift forces candidates to campaign more broadly and appeal directly to voters, rather than relying solely on the organizational support of county machines. The change also leads to candidates campaigning more broadly and appealing directly to voters, rather than relying solely on the organizational support of county machines.
The key question now is whether the organizational power of these county parties can still translate into votes without the visual advantage on the ballot.
Sherrill’s Strategy: Embracing Tradition
Despite the changes, Mikie Sherrill has doubled down on the traditional approach, aggressively cultivating endorsements from county Democratic organizations. As Kornacki points out, ‘Sherrill has stuck with the traditional approach, aggressively cultivating them. Since her election to the House in 2018, when she flipped a Republican-held seat, she’s been seen as a statewide prospect and developed relationships with party leaders and insiders.’
Sherrill has won endorsements from 10 of the state’s 21 county Democratic organizations, including three of the four largest. The counties in which Sherrill has won support account for nearly 60% of all registered Democrats in the state.
Even without the line, the county organizations are still free to work on her behalf — no small matter in a state where machine politics are still practiced. And she’ll get to display the slogan of each organization that is backing her next to her name on the ballot. For instance, a slogan can be ‘The Regular Democratic Organization of Union County’.
Alternative Approaches: Gottheimer, Sweeney, Baraka, and Fulop
Other candidates in the race are adopting different strategies. Rep. Josh Gottheimer and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney have focused on targeting specific counties, while Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop has skipped the endorsement process altogether.
Gottheimer found this out the hard way, when the organization in Hudson County, one of the biggest in the state, from him to Sherrill. But Baraka and Fulop have tried to turn their lack of organizational support into a plus, hoping to tap into popular frustration with the machine style.
These alternative approaches reflect a broader debate about the role of party machines in modern politics. Some candidates are betting that voters are ready for a change, while others believe that organizational power still holds sway.
An Unusually Muddled Primary Contest
The varied strategies and the changing political landscape have resulted in an unusually muddled primary contest. Recent polls, however, showed Sherrill separating herself from the pack. Kornacki notes, ‘This has all added up to an unusually muddled primary contest — at least until the past week, when showed Sherrill separating herself from the pack. It could mean her heavy spending on television ads is paying off.’
The outcome of the primary will likely depend on a combination of factors, including campaign spending, voter turnout, and the effectiveness of county organizations in mobilizing support.
Ultimately, the New Jersey Democratic machines hope it’s a sign that the old ways still work.
Conclusion: The Future of NJ Politics
The New Jersey gubernatorial primary is more than just a race to select a nominee; it is a referendum on the staying power of traditional machine politics. Mikie Sherrill’s strategy of embracing county endorsements will be tested against the backdrop of new ballot laws and alternative campaign approaches.
The results could signal a shift in the state’s political landscape, with implications for future elections and the balance of power within the Democratic Party. Whether the old ways still work remains to be seen, but the primary is poised to provide valuable insights into the evolving nature of New Jersey politics.
By keeping a close watch on voter turnout, campaign finance reports, and the strategies employed by each candidate, we can gain a deeper understanding of the forces shaping the future of New Jersey politics and the enduring influence of county machines.
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