Juan Soto’s arrival in New York came with immense expectations, fueled by his record-breaking $765 million contract with the Mets. The Dominican outfielder, already a star, was expected to deliver all-time brilliance. However, his initial performance has been a subject of scrutiny. While his walk rate remains elite and his wRC+ is above average, many feel he isn’t living up to the hype.
This article delves into Soto’s performance, analyzing his underlying stats, highlighting instances of bad luck, and examining potential reasons for his perceived struggles. We’ll explore whether the concerns are justified or if Soto is simply experiencing a period of adjustment and misfortune. We will examine his process and what the underlying metrics show about his true performance.
Soto by the Numbers: A Statistical Overview
Despite the concerns, Soto’s Savant page is awash with red, indicating elite performance in several key metrics. His chase rate is in the 100th percentile, and his barrel and exit velocity data are excellent. Although his walk rate has slightly decreased, and his barrel rate is down from his time with Aaron Judge, he remains a potent offensive force. Even PL’s version of xwOBA is harsh on Soto, yet he still ranks extremely high.
His process+ metrics further support this, indicating that Soto’s underlying skills and approach remain top-tier. These metrics suggest he’s getting extremely unlucky. A low BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) doesn’t inherently mean a player is unlucky, but when combined with Soto’s high barrel rate, it suggests that batted balls are simply not finding the grass.
Instances of Bad Luck: Lineouts and Robbed Home Runs
Several instances highlight Soto’s misfortune. On April 13th against the A’s, he hit a 112.4 mph line drive to dead center, resulting in an incredible catch by an infielder. Another example includes a home run robbed by Victor Scott. Additionally, a bizarre play against Michael A. Taylor, where a line drive landed in the outfield but resulted in an out due to a baserunning miscommunication, further exemplifies his struggles.
Soto has had sixteen batted balls resulting in outs with a Statcast xBA (expected Batting Average) of .500 or higher. While this doesn’t lead MLB, it’s tied for ninth. Considering his relatively low ball-in-play rate, Soto has been remarkably unlucky at the plate. This string of unfortunate events could be significantly impacting his perceived performance.
A Cause for Concern?: Swing Speed and Mechanics
Despite the positive indicators, one area of concern is Soto’s swing speed, which has dropped to 73.3 mph. While still excellent, it’s a decrease from his 2024 speed of 75.4 mph. Notably, Soto appears to have shortened his swing, potentially explaining the reduced swing speed. This adjustment is strange for a hitter who has been so productive, but might be a conscious effort to improve his timing or contact rate.
His launch angle has also decreased, although his swing path remains strong, even improving slightly. Soto’s ideal attack angle rate is at a three-year high. The adjustment in mechanics could be affecting his launch angle and overall results. Soto’s exit velocity has actually been even better in some instances. A tweaked swing hasn’t paid dividends yet, but the fact that his shortened swing and reduced bat speed haven’t resulted in substantial drop-offs in exit velo makes one optimistic.
New York State of Mind: Adjustment to a New Team
Adjusting to a new team and environment is challenging, even for seasoned veterans. While Soto’s move was within New York, the change in scenery can still impact a player’s performance. Any concerns regarding Soto shouldn’t revolve around his offense but his declining speed and poor right field performance. It is worth noting that Soto’s type of player is one where a team will eat poor defense to get the bat in the lineup. DH duty is going to be more commonplace for Soto.
This transition period requires patience and understanding. The pressure of a massive contract, combined with the expectations of a new fanbase, can create additional challenges. However, Soto’s track record and underlying talent suggest that he will eventually adapt and thrive in his new environment.
Fantasy Impact: Buy Low Opportunity?
For fantasy baseball players, Juan Soto is worth buying in your leagues. Also, in dynasty leagues, this may be the lowest his stock has ever been. Considering his elite potential and underlying metrics, this might represent a buy-low opportunity. While his current stats may not reflect his true value, his underlying skills and history suggest that he is poised for a rebound.
Monitor his swing adjustments and overall performance closely. If he can regain his optimal swing speed and launch angle, he has the potential to be a league-winning player. Be patient and capitalize on the opportunity to acquire a superstar at a discounted price. Regardless, he’s worth buying in your fantasy leagues, and in dynasty, this may be the lowest his stock has ever been.
Conclusion: Soto is (Probably) Just Fine
While Juan Soto’s initial performance with the Mets may not have met the lofty expectations set by his massive contract, a deeper analysis reveals that he is likely just fine. His underlying stats remain elite, and he has been the victim of considerable bad luck. Any concerns regarding his swing speed and mechanics should be monitored, but the overall outlook remains positive.
Soto’s adjustment to a new team and environment also plays a role in his performance. With time and patience, he is likely to regain his form and deliver the all-time brilliance that Mets fans are eagerly anticipating. For fantasy players, now may be the perfect time to invest in a player poised for a rebound.
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