Kyle Schwarber is currently experiencing the best start of his career, leaving many to wonder if this is simply a flash in the pan or a sign of significant changes in his approach. Currently boasting a 164 wRC+, ranking him eighth among qualified hitters, Schwarber’s performance is driven by 19 home runs and a 16% walk rate, both placing him in the top five. What’s even more impressive is that Schwarber is known to be a slow starter traditionally.
Historically, Schwarber’s wRC+ stands at 110 in March and April, improving to 115 in May and a notable 145 in June. This season, however, he defied expectations by starting strong and only getting better. Let’s delve into the key factors behind Schwarber’s stellar performance and analyze whether these changes are sustainable for the long haul. This article explores Schwarber’s strikeout rate, contact quality, and adjustments to his swing, providing a comprehensive overview of his remarkable season.
Early Career Struggles: A Slow Start
Throughout his career, Kyle Schwarber has been known for his slow starts, often taking time to find his rhythm at the plate. Historically, his performance in March and April has been less impressive compared to the later months of the season. Despite these early-season challenges, Schwarber has consistently shown the ability to adjust and improve as the year progresses.
In 2016, his wOBA in April was a mere .138, reflecting a period of significant struggle. Over the years, there have been fluctuations, with a notable improvement in 2018 (.372) before settling into a more consistent range. The figures illustrate a clear trend of Schwarber needing time to ramp up his performance each season.
Decreasing Strikeout Rate
One of the most significant changes in Schwarber’s game this season is his reduced strikeout rate. Currently at 24.4%, this would be the lowest of his career, a decrease of over four percentage points from last season. This improvement indicates a more refined approach at the plate, with Schwarber making better decisions on which pitches to swing at.
“I think the biggest thing is not trying to hit their pitch,” he said. “You’re trying to hit their mistake.”
This adjustment is crucial because it allows him to put more balls in play and capitalize on opportunities. As the saying goes, you can’t get on base if you don’t put the ball in play. By cutting down on strikeouts, Schwarber is giving himself more chances to contribute to his team’s success.
Improved Contact Quality
In addition to reducing his strikeout rate, Schwarber is also making better contact with the ball. His .499 wOBAcon (weighted on-base average on contact) and .531 xwOBAcon (expected weighted on-base average on contact) are the best marks of his career. This suggests that when he does make contact, he is hitting the ball with more power and precision.
Schwarber’s average and 90th-percentile exit velocities are almost exactly the same as they were last season, but his hard-hit rate is up by nearly four percentage points.
This improvement in contact quality is likely a result of subtle changes in his swing mechanics. By squaring the ball up more effectively, Schwarber is able to generate more force and drive the ball with greater consistency. These adjustments are paying off in the form of increased offensive production.
More Selective Swing Decisions
Another factor contributing to Schwarber’s success is his improved swing decisions. He is swinging at the first pitch less often (20.4% of the time, the lowest mark of his career), indicating a more patient approach. This allows him to see more pitches and get a better read on the pitcher’s tendencies.
His overall swing rate is down, and his chase rate (19.4%) is the lowest of his career. This suggests that he is being more selective, focusing on pitches in the heart of the plate where he can do the most damage. This disciplined approach is helping him avoid weak contact and maximize his offensive output.
Dominating the Heart of the Plate
Schwarber’s performance on pitches over the heart of the plate has been particularly impressive. He’s worth 4.9 runs per 100 pitches, trailing only Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge. His 98.5 mph exit velocity and 79.5% hard-hit rate on these pitches are the highest of his career, making him one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball in these situations.
In the past 11 years, no player has ever been more likely to hit a ball over the heart of the plate hard than Kyle Schwarber is this season.
This dominance in the heart of the zone is a testament to his improved swing decisions and contact quality. By focusing on these pitches, Schwarber is able to capitalize on pitchers’ mistakes and drive the ball with tremendous power.
Subtle Changes to Stance and Intercept Point
Statcast data reveals that Schwarber is setting up an inch closer to the plate this season. This seemingly minor adjustment has significant implications for his swing and contact point. By positioning himself closer to the plate, Schwarber is able to meet the ball slightly farther out front, allowing him to pull the ball more effectively.
Pitchers have always attacked Schwarber away, and this season he’s more willing to swing at those pitches and less willing to swing at elevated fastballs.
This subtle shift in stance and intercept point is a key factor in his improved performance. It enables him to generate more power and drive the ball with greater consistency, especially on pitches located away from the body.
Conclusion: A Sustainable Transformation?
Kyle Schwarber is in the midst of an outstanding season, driven by improved swing decisions, contact quality, and subtle adjustments to his stance. While it remains to be seen whether these changes are sustainable over the long term, the early results are undeniably impressive. By focusing on pitches in the heart of the plate and making more selective swing decisions, Schwarber is maximizing his offensive output.
As Schwarber continues to refine his approach at the plate, he has the potential to establish himself as one of the premier hitters in the game. Whether this is a temporary hot streak or a lasting transformation, one thing is clear: Kyle Schwarber is a force to be reckoned with in 2025.
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