Jackson Merrill burst onto the scene last season as the Padres’ top prospect, making a seamless transition from shortstop to center field after a dominant spring training. Skipping Triple-A altogether, Merrill not only handled the position change with grace but thrived, becoming a key component of the Padres’ exciting team.
As a rookie, Merrill showcased his talent with 24 home runs and a remarkable 5.0 fWAR. Had it not been for Paul Skenes’ historic season with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Merrill would have been the frontrunner for National League Rookie of the Year. Instead, he finished second, earning seven first-place votes and 23 second-place votes.
Despite these accomplishments, Merrill entered the 2025 season still surprisingly underrated. Playing alongside superstars in San Diego, it’s been a challenge for him to gain the recognition he truly deserves. Although a few injuries have sidelined him this season, Merrill has continued to excel at the plate. The question remains: Why hasn’t he received the widespread acclaim his performance warrants?
This article delves into Jackson Merrill’s game, examining his performance and exploring the possible reasons behind his underrated status. We’ll shed light on why this 22-year-old deserves immense credit for his contributions to the Padres.
Breaking Down Merrill’s 2025 Season
Following his impressive rookie year, the Padres demonstrated their faith in Merrill, inking him to a nine-year, $135 million contract extension before the 2025 season. However, a right hamstring strain on April 8 temporarily halted his momentum, sidelining him for nearly a month. Since returning from the IL on May 6, Merrill has been on a tear, continuing to build on his promising career.
Through June 29, Merrill has launched five home runs in 217 plate appearances, accompanied by a slash line of .294/.350/.452, a 126 wRC+, and a 1.5 fWAR. Considering his age, just 22 years old, these numbers are even more remarkable. Among Padres hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, Merrill’s wRC+ trails only Manny Machado, placing him just ahead of Fernando Tatis Jr.
While Merrill’s counting stats may be slightly lower due to his time on the injured list, an argument can be made that he is currently the second-best hitter on the team behind Machado. He stands in the 75th percentile or better in key metrics such as xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel rate, and launch angle sweet spot rate. His elite bat skills are on full display, showcasing his potential to be a dominant force in the league.
Merrill complements his offensive prowess with stellar defensive skills. In center field, he boasts 1 OAA and an arm that ranks among the strongest in the league. His arm strength, measured at 95.9 mph, places him in the 98th percentile, solidifying his status as a Gold Glove-caliber defender in just his second season at the position.
Other Aspects of Merrill’s Game
Merrill’s 81st-percentile sprint speed further enhances his overall value, enabling him to steal bases effectively. In his rookie season, he stole nearly 20 bases, and he has the potential to surpass that number with more opportunities. He attempted 19 steals last season, successfully converting 16 of them.
The one area where Merrill could improve is his plate discipline. Currently, his chase rate stands at 34.4%, placing him among the league’s worst. He also has a below-average walk rate. Despite these shortcomings, he has still managed to produce at a high level, suggesting that improvements in this area could unlock even greater potential.
Overall, Jackson Merrill offers a rare five-tool skill set, a play style that is becoming increasingly scarce in modern baseball. What makes Merrill’s accomplishments even more impressive is that he’s achieving this level of success at only 22 years old.
How Does Merrill Compare to the League’s Top Talents?
To fully appreciate Merrill’s performance, it’s essential to compare him to other talented center fielders in the game. A recurring theme emerges when examining these names: Merrill’s numbers often surpass those of more widely recognized players, yet he receives significantly less attention.
Among center fielders with at least 200 plate appearances, Jackson Merrill boasts the sixth-highest wRC+. Furthermore, he’s one of only six to achieve a wRC+ above 125. What makes this even more striking is the caliber of players he outranks. Names such as Javier Báez, Cody Bellinger, Jung Hoo Lee, Julio Rodríguez, Cedric Mullins, Tommy Edman, Jackson Chourio, Oneil Cruz, and Ceddanne Rafaela all trail Merrill in this key offensive metric.
Despite their reputations, these players haven’t matched Merrill’s offensive output this season. While it’s difficult to quantify, it’s likely that many of these players have received more media coverage and recognition than Merrill, despite his superior performance.
In just 51 games, Merrill has already accumulated roughly the same fWAR as Chourio has in his first 83 games this season. If this pace continues, Merrill is projected to reach an fWAR near 4.0 by the end of the year, despite missing a significant amount of time. While fWAR is not the definitive measure of a player’s value, it highlights Merrill’s impact when he’s on the field.
Merrill vs. League Top Talents (Continued)
Although it is admittedly a less-used statistic these days, Merrill also ranks second among center fielders with at least 200 plate appearances in batting average. The only player ahead of him? Astros breakout center fielder Jake Meyers, and across the board, Merrill is the better hitter.
Merrill’s on-base percentage this season is higher than Byron Buxton’s, a statistic I found particularly interesting, considering . Buxton has been talked about repeatedly as a candidate for the All-Star Game, yet there’s almost no buzz around Merrill’s name in general.
There are plenty of other examples where Merrill edges out center fielders with a lot of buzz around their names, while he gets almost no recognition. It’s impossible to cite every example of this, but it’s fascinating to compare their numbers, recognition, and name value, even considering Merrill’s injury this season.
Why Is Merrill Still Underrated?
After examining Merrill’s statistics and comparing them to other elite center fielders, it’s puzzling why he remains one of the most underrated players in baseball. What factors contribute to this lack of recognition?
One potential explanation is Merrill’s injury, which may have caused many to overlook his true potential. Having appeared in just 51 of the Padres’ 83 games this season, it’s easy to understand how he might slip under the radar. Another possibility is the presence of other stars on the Padres, which could dilute the attention he receives.
The most reasonable assumption is that Merrill’s injury caused plenty of people to forget just how good he could be. This is reasonable, considering Merrill has only appeared in 51 of the Padres’ 83 games this season due to injury, so it’s easy for him to slip past the headlines.
Conclusion
Jackson Merrill’s talent and performance are undeniable. He’s replicating, or even surpassing, his production from last season, demonstrating consistency at the plate and in center field. Despite missing time due to injury, he’s quickly returned to form, showcasing his resilience and determination.
While it may take a full, healthy second half for the league to fully recognize Merrill’s abilities, there’s no denying his exceptional talent. It’s time for the baseball world to catch up and acknowledge just how good Jackson Merrill can be at his peak. He is a true five-tool player with the potential to be a superstar, and his contributions to the Padres deserve widespread recognition.
Merrill hasn’t gone anywhere; he’s simply picked up where he left off. The tools and the consistency at the plate and in center field all remain intact. If anything, his ability to bounce back from injury and return to form at such a young age should be reason for even more praise, not less.
Leave a Reply