The MLB season is heading into its final stretch, and the playoff picture is starting to take shape. However, for many teams, the road to October is fraught with challenges. As Riley Greene and Tyler Holton demonstrated last year with the Detroit Tigers’ unexpected playoff surge, anything can happen. This article breaks down the schedules of several MLB contenders, analyzing their upcoming games in the first two weeks of September to determine which teams face the toughest path to the playoffs.
This analysis will consider factors such as strength of schedule, key series, and recent performance to provide insights into each team’s chances. From the American League to the National League, we’ll examine the schedules of teams like the Detroit Tigers, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers and Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres, New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds. By focusing on specific series and opponents, this article will highlight the critical challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for these contenders.
Whether you’re a die-hard fan or a casual observer, understanding the landscape of the MLB playoff race can enhance your appreciation of the game. Let’s dive in and explore which teams have the toughest road to the playoffs in this crucial part 2 schedule breakdown.
American League Playoff Contenders: Navigating the September Gauntlet
The American League playoff race is heating up, with several teams vying for a coveted spot in October. Here’s a look at some of the top contenders and the challenges they face in the coming weeks:
Detroit Tigers: Maintaining Momentum
Record: 80-58
Playoff odds: 99.9 percent
Strength of schedule: .496
The Detroit Tigers have a strong grip on a playoff spot, but they can’t afford to relax. Their key series from September 9-11 against the Yankees will be a major test. The Yankees are a dangerous team, and these games could determine whether the Tigers secure the top seed in the American League. Though the Tigers have breathing room, they narrowed it by losing five of six to the Athletics and Royals before Tarik Skubal shoved Sunday.
Their early September schedule includes home games against teams with a .537 and .353 win percentage respectively, and road games against teams with .559 and .471 win percentages respectively. They will need strong performances from their key players to maintain their lead and secure a favorable position in the playoffs.
Toronto Blue Jays: Balancing Division and Wild Card Races
Record: 79-58
Playoff odds: 99.8 percent
Strength of schedule: .507
The Toronto Blue Jays face a critical stretch in early September with key series against the Yankees (Sept. 5-7) and the Astros (Sept. 9-11). These games will be crucial in determining their playoff seeding and whether they can secure a first-round bye. The Blue Jays need to balance the challenge of teams chasing them in the division and AL West, which makes these back-to-back series key to maintaining their playoff advantage.
The Blue Jays’ early September schedule includes a road game against a .500 win percentage team, and then road games against teams with .559 win percentages. Their home games include opponents with .551 and .449 win percentages respectively. A strong performance in these series will be essential for maintaining their playoff advantage.
New York Yankees: A Nightmare or an Opportunity?
Record: 76-61
Playoff odds: 98.9 percent
Strength of schedule: .495
The New York Yankees have a challenging road ahead, but it also presents an opportunity to climb back into the division race. Their key series from September 2-4 against the Astros could set the tone for their playoff push. After sweeping the Nationals and winning three of four against the White Sox, the Yankees face a far more challenging schedule in the coming weeks.
The Yankees will need to navigate a tough September schedule that includes opponents with .551, .574, .577, and .547 win percentages respectively. These games will be crucial in determining their playoff fate and whether they can secure a first-round bye.
Boston Red Sox: High-Profile Matchups
Record: 76-62
Playoff odds: 93.9 percent
Strength of schedule: .505
After recently taking three of four in the Bronx, the Red Sox have another shot to take down their rival—while further securing a playoff spot—when the Yankees come to Boston. It’s a high-profile set sandwiched between two series against the Athletics with off days on either side. The Red Sox will be rested and ready. They finish the season with a couple of tough series against the Blue Jays and Tigers, but until then, their schedule is pretty soft, other than the Yankees series.
The Red Sox schedule includes home opponents with .507 win percentages, road opponents with .496 and .460 win percentages and a final home game against opponents with a .559 win percentage.
Houston Astros: Navigating a Three-City Trip
Record: 75-62
Playoff odds: 88.4 percent
Strength of schedule: .510
The Houston Astros face a challenging September schedule, including a key series against the Blue Jays (Sept. 9-11) in the middle of a three-city trip. These games will be crucial as they fight for a division title. The Mariners pose a far greater threat in the AL West. They swept the Jays earlier this season, but that was in April — before the Blue Jays got on a midseason roll — and that series was in Houston. Now the Astros have to go to Toronto in the middle of a three-city trip. That’s not an easy assignment for a team fighting for a division title.
The Astros schedule includes home opponents with .467 and .559 win percentages and road opponents with .511, .574 and .449 win percentages.
Seattle Mariners: Capitalizing on a Soft Spot
Record: 73-64
Playoff odds: 87 percent
Strength of schedule: .494
The Seattle Mariners have a chance to take control of the AL West with a relatively soft schedule in early September. Their four-game set at home against the Angels (Sept. 11-14) could be especially impactful, as they are currently trailing the Astros by two games. On paper, this is the soft spot in the schedule before the real challenge comes in the last two weeks of the regular season: Royals, Astros, Rockies, Dodgers.
The Mariners have a road schedule against opponents with .489 and .449 win percentages, and a home schedule against opponents with .496 and .467 win percentages.
Texas Rangers: Heating Up at the Right Time
Record: 71-67
Playoff odds: 14.2 percent
Strength of schedule: .507
The Rangers are heating up at the right time, as they won five consecutive games to end August, but they’re entering the final month as true long shots to make the playoffs. Their next two weeks are no cakewalk. They have six games left against the Astros, beginning with a three-game set at home this weekend. That’s a prime opportunity to make up ground against a team they’re chasing in the AL West.
The Rangers’ early September schedule includes road opponents with a .496 win percentage, and home opponents with .551 and .620 win percentages and a final road game against an opponent with a .537 win percentage.
Kansas City Royals: Becoming Relevant
Record: 70-67
Playoff odds: 10.7 percent
Strength of schedule: .499
The Kansas City Royals are becoming relevant at the end of the season. However, they just lost an important series to the Tigers, and so far are only 5-5 against the Twins and 4-5 against the Guardians. Their key series from September 8-11 at the Guardians will be crucial if they want to grab a wild-card spot. The AL Central has been a topsy-turvy division all year, with the Twins, Guardians and Royals taking turns in the preliminary playoff picture. Here at the end of the season, the Royals are becoming relevant. However, they just lost an important series to the Tigers, and so far are only 5-5 against the Twins and 4-5 against the Guardians.
The Royals’ September schedule includes home opponents with .467 and .452 win percentages, and road opponents with .507 and .581 win percentages.
Cleveland Guardians: Playing for a Miracle
Record: 68-67
Playoff odds: 5.2 percent
Strength of schedule: .493
The Guardians had a day off on Thursday, but they won’t have another day off for two weeks. It’s a late-summer grind, which might be ideal for a team trying to play its way to a miracle. More games mean more opportunities to win, and the Guardians need to win a lot this month. They return home next week for a big four-game set against the Royals, a team they’ll need to pass to even be next in line for a playoff spot. An improbable run has to start somewhere. Might as well start there.
The Guardians’ schedule includes road opponents with .547 and .489 win percentages, and home opponents with .511 and .353 win percentages.
National League Playoff Contenders: Battles for the Wild Card
The National League playoff race is just as intense, with several teams fighting for a spot in October. Here’s a look at some of the top contenders and the challenges they face:
Milwaukee Brewers: Securing a Wild-Card Bye
Record: 85-53
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .496
The immediate importance of this series to the best-record-in-baseball Brewers is to add cushion in their effort to secure a wild-card bye. It’ll also provide a few key data points as the Brewers prepare for a postseason in which they have a good shot of seeing these same Phillies on a grander stage. The Brewers have lost in the wild card in four of their past five playoff trips. They’d prefer free passage to the NLDS this time, please.
The Brewers September schedule includes home opponents with .581 win percentages, road opponents with .445 and .511 win percentages and a final home game against an opponent with a .496 win percentage.
Philadelphia Phillies: Punching Back Against the Mets
Record: 79-58
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .508
The Phillies face a critical series against the Mets (Sept. 8-11), offering a chance to avenge their previous losses this season. These games will be a challenge, especially given the Mets’ dominance at home this season. Considering how the Mets handled the Phillies last week, we’ll go with that rematch rather than circling the Brewers series just starting in Milwaukee. Philadelphia is now 2-7 against the Mets this season, which has done absolutely nothing to help the sting from last year’s NLDS result. The Mets have dominated at home this season, though, and being on the road has not suited them. A few days in the raucous environment of Citizens Bank Park will be a challenge. Perhaps the Phillies can punch back.
The Phillies’ schedule includes a road opponent with a .620 win percentage, road opponents with a .471 win percentage, and home opponents with .537 and .515 win percentages.
Los Angeles Dodgers: A Get-Right Opportunity
Record: 78-59
Playoff odds: 99.9 percent
Strength of schedule: .494
The Dodgers have a relatively easy schedule in early September, providing an opportunity to get back on track. However, their series against the Giants (Sept. 12-14) will be a key test, as the Giants always play them tough. The Phillies and Mariners loom in the second half of September, but the first half is a get-right opportunity for any Dodger feeling a little off lately.
The Dodgers’ early September schedule includes road opponents with .445 and .449 win percentages, a home opponent with a .279 win percentage and a road opponent with a .493 win percentage.
Chicago Cubs: Facing a Sneaky Good Braves Team
Record: 78-59
Playoff odds: 99.7 percent
Strength of schedule: .497
The Chicago Cubs face a challenging series against the Braves (Sept. 1-3, 8-10), who have been playing well recently despite their position in the standings. These games will be crucial for the Cubs as they look to solidify their playoff spot. The way the standings currently shake out, the Braves look like a pushover. They’re down there with the Marlins and Pirates in the league ledger. But, even coming off a bad weekend series against the Phillies, Atlanta has been sneaky good for most of the past month.
The Cubs September schedule includes home opponents with .449 win percentages, road opponents with .449 win percentages and a final home game against an opponent with a .489 win percentage.
San Diego Padres: Easiest Schedule in Baseball?
Record: 76-61
Playoff odds: 99.3 percent
Strength of schedule: .462
The San Diego Padres have one of the easiest schedules in baseball for September, providing a great opportunity to fight for first place in the NL West. Their series against the Rockies (Sept. 5-7, 11-14) should be particularly advantageous. A home-and-home with last-place Colorado is just what the doctor ordered for the Padres as they fight for first place in the NL West. The Dodgers have one of baseball’s easiest schedules in September; the Padres, however, have the easiest — by a country mile.
The Padres’ September schedule includes home opponents with .449 win percentages, road opponents with .279 win percentages and a final home game against an opponent with a .279 win percentage.
New York Mets: Crucial Road Trip
Record: 73-64
Playoff odds: 93.1 percent
Strength of schedule: .499
The Mets face a challenging 10-game road trip in early September, with key series against the Reds (Sept. 5-7) and Phillies. These games will be crucial in determining their wild-card position. The Mets appeared to have found their footing last week, sweeping the Phillies. But losing three of four to the Marlins over the weekend was an awful way to set up for this next stretch — a 10-game trip to Detroit, Cincinnati and Philadelphia.
The Mets’ September schedule includes road opponents with .577, .500 and .581 win percentages and a final home game against an opponent with a .511 win percentage.
Cincinnati Reds: Now or Never
Record: 69-68
Playoff odds: 4 percent
Strength of schedule: .518
It’s now or never for the Reds. The Cincinnati Reds face a must-win series against the Mets (Sept. 5-7) as they try to claw their way into the playoff picture. These series are all pretty darned important for a team really going through it right now and desperately trying to claw into the playoff picture. But the Mets are the Reds’ most direct competitor for the final wild-card position in the NL, so we’ll circle that three-game set in Cincinnati.
The Reds schedule includes home opponents with .574 and .537 win percentages, and road opponents with .559 win percentages and a final road game against an opponent with a .460 win percentage.
Final Thoughts on the Playoff Push
As the MLB season heads into its final month, the playoff races in both the American and National Leagues are set to deliver thrilling finishes. For teams like the Yankees and Astros, these series represent a critical opportunity to gain ground in their respective divisions. Meanwhile, teams such as the Mariners and Padres will aim to leverage their relatively easier schedules to secure a playoff berth.
Ultimately, the teams that can best navigate these challenges and capitalize on their opportunities will be the ones to advance to the postseason. With so much at stake, fans can expect intense competition and dramatic moments as the contenders battle for a chance to compete for the World Series title.
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