The 2025-2026 MLB free agent class is shaping up to be a fascinating one, particularly for teams seeking starting pitching. Amidst a sea of talent, including names like Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, and Zac Gallen, one pitcher might be surprisingly undervalued: Ranger Suárez. While Suárez may not be the first name that comes to mind, a closer look reveals a compelling case for why he could emerge as the most sought-after starting pitcher this winter.
Suárez is having a dominant season in 2025, and this article will dive into the reasons why Ranger Suárez should be considered the top free agent starter. We’ll analyze his performance metrics, compare him to his peers, address injury concerns, and ultimately explain why his unique combination of youth, skill, and current form makes him an exceptional asset.
A Deep Free Agent Starting Pitcher Market
The upcoming free agent market boasts several high-profile starting pitchers, each with their strengths and weaknesses. Framber Valdez brings durability and a track record of success. Dylan Cease offers strikeout potential, while Michael King has demonstrated flashes of brilliance. However, Suárez presents a unique blend of factors that set him apart.
To truly understand Suárez’s potential, it’s essential to examine key statistics and compare them against these other free-agent pitchers. Looking at metrics like ERA, FIP, and K-BB% over the past two seasons provides valuable insights into their performance. Here’s a summary:
| Pitcher | Age | IP (2024-25) | ERA (2024-25) | FIP (2024-25) | K-BB% (2024-25) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 31 | 345.2 | 3.15 | 3.20 | 15.9% |
| Dylan Cease | 29 | 335.1 | 4.05 | 3.35 | 20.5% |
| Michael King | 30 | 231.1 | 2.92 | 3.33 | 19.1% |
| Zac Gallen | 29 | 310.0 | 4.33 | 3.96 | 14.9% |
| Brandon Woodruff | 32 | 53.2 | 3.69 | 3.56 | 23.7% |
| Shane Bieber | 30 | 23.1 | 1.16 | 1.52 | 39.5% |
| Ranger Suárez | 29 | 281.2 | 3.26 | 3.22 | 17.0% |
Addressing Injury Concerns
One of the primary concerns surrounding Suárez is his injury history. Since 2022, he’s had multiple IL stints due to back issues. However, it’s crucial to put these injuries into perspective. While recurring back problems are not ideal, they haven’t resulted in extended absences, and his performance hasn’t appeared to suffer upon his return.
Despite these setbacks, Suárez has consistently been a valuable contributor to the Phillies’ rotation. He’s one of only 23 pitchers to throw at least 100 innings in each of the last five seasons. Impressively, among those 23 pitchers, he ranks fourth in ERA (3.22), seventh in FIP (3.42), and ninth in fWAR, even though he ranks last in innings pitched. This demonstrates his effectiveness when healthy and on the mound.
A Dominant Walk Year
Suárez’s performance in his walk year is hard to ignore. Since making his season debut on May 4, 2025, he has pitched to a 3.02 ERA and 3.06 FIP over 131 innings. That puts him among the top performers in baseball. In fact, dating back to the beginning of May, only Tarik Skubal, Cristopher Sánchez, and Paul Skenes have a higher fWAR than Suárez. His 3.6 fWAR is tied with Garrett Crochet’s.
Among impending free agents, Suárez stands out even further. No other impending free agent has a lower ERA during that span, and only Valdez has a lower FIP (3.00 to Suárez’s 3.06). His success this year stems from a strategic refinement of his existing strengths. While he may not possess overpowering swing-and-miss stuff, he excels at generating weak contact, particularly this season.
The Art of Inducing Weak Contact
Suárez’s ability to limit hard contact is a key ingredient in his success. Throughout the season, he’s allowed 377 batted balls, with 32.4% registering at or below 80 mph. His average exit velocity of 85.6 mph and a hard-hit rate of 30.2% lead all starters this season and rank among the best in recent years.
Among starting pitchers this decade with at least 500 batters faced, only his teammate Zack Wheeler in 2021, has finished a season with a higher strikeout rate and a lower hard-hit rate than Suárez currently has. It’s this combination of a respectable strikeout rate and consistent weak contact that sets him apart.
Grounders and “Cans of Corn”
Another vital aspect of Suárez’s approach is his ability to control the type of contact he allows. His line drive rate against has plummeted to 19.9% this year, significantly lower than last year, and one of the lowest among pitchers with at least 300 batted balls allowed. This is crucial because line drives yield a significantly higher batting average than other types of batted balls.
Additionally, while being a sinkerball pitcher, Suárez has allowed more balls in the air this year, with most being lazy fly balls. Of the fly balls and popups he’s allowed this year, the average exit velocity is just 84.4 mph, the lowest among pitchers with at least 100 such batted balls since 2020, except for Zack Wheeler in 2021. This combination of groundballs and easily catchable fly balls makes him a nightmare for opposing offenses.
A look at how his numbers compare to those of other potential free agents further highlights Suárez’s strengths:
| Pitcher | Groundball% | Avg. EV on Fly Balls | Pull% on Fly Balls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 60.8% | 93.6 | 14.6% |
| Dylan Cease | 38.6% | 93.0 | 29.3% |
| Michael King | 41.0% | 90.5 | 27.5% |
| Zac Gallen | 44.6% | 91.9 | 23.8% |
| Brandon Woodruff | 34.6% | 92.1 | 37.2% |
| Shane Bieber | 51.0% | 96.0 | 33.3% |
| Ranger Suárez | 50.2% | 89.5 | 26.1% |
Where Does Suárez Stand Out?
Suárez’s appeal isn’t tied to one standout statistic but rather a combination of factors. His relative youth is a significant advantage. Being one of the younger pitchers on the free agent market allows teams to offer him a longer-term deal with more confidence. While older pitchers like Valdez and Woodruff might command higher annual salaries, they may not receive as many years.
Furthermore, Woodruff and Bieber are recovering from major surgeries, which could impact their value and limit the number of innings they’ll pitch this year. Teams will likely proceed cautiously with these pitchers, whereas Suárez’s injury history is less severe. Other pitchers such as Cease and Gallen give up too many flyballs which turn into home runs, which is something Suárez does not struggle with.
The Valdez Comparison
The pitcher that can be most compared to Suárez is Framber Valdez, who is also a lefty sinkerballer with a knack for keeping the ball in the yard and a good strikeout rate. Valdez will likely land a larger contract than Suárez. However, Suárez has a real chance to be the more “valuable” pick.
While Valdez offers greater durability, Suárez is nearly two years younger and better at inducing weak contact. Valdez allows hard hit flyballs at a very high rate. He has a 52.4% hard-hit rate on fly balls, compared to the 6th-lowest rate of 125 pitchers who have allowed 400 balls in the air since 2020.
Conclusion: Suárez as the Premier Choice
Ranger Suárez has proven to be an ace when healthy and on the mound. His performance over the past four months puts him on par with Cy Young candidates, and his ability to generate weak contact is unmatched among starters. While he may not command the flashiest contract this winter, don’t be surprised if, five to seven years from now, he’s regarded as the most valuable starting pitcher signed in this upcoming free agency period.
Suárez may not be the most obvious choice, but his combination of youth, current performance, and underlying metrics make him an incredibly attractive option. Teams seeking a reliable, effective, and durable starting pitcher should strongly consider Ranger Suárez as their top target in the upcoming free agent market.
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