Guess audiences couldn’t smell what the Rock was cooking. Dwayne Johnson’s R-rated sports drama ‘The Smashing Machine’ was knocked out at the box office, grossing only $6 million in its debut weekend—a tragic start for the A24 production. These initial ticket sales are a huge blow to A24, which spent $50 million to produce the film and stands to lose tens of millions on this box-office bust.
This article explores the six key reasons behind the disappointing performance of ‘The Smashing Machine’. From audience confusion to marketing mishaps, we delve into why this Dwayne Johnson-led film failed to resonate with moviegoers. Discover the factors that contributed to its box office failure and what lessons can be learned from this cinematic misstep.
Audience Identity Crisis
Who was ‘The Smashing Machine’ for? That’s the lingering question after a dismal opening weekend. A24 positioned ‘The Smashing Machine’ as an arthouse drama with awards appeal, premiering it at the Venice Film Festival and emphasizing Johnson’s on-screen transformation. However, the initial audience, predominantly younger men (64% between 18-36), aligned more with Johnson’s traditional action tentpoles. Only 8% were over 55, a key demographic for arthouse releases. Those who were incentivized to buy a ticket were seemingly disappointed in the action (or lack thereof) on screen, which is reflected in the weak audience scores.
No Reason to Cost the Studio $50 Million
Johnson commands a big payday to star in films—and that usually makes sense given much of his career. But this wasn’t a standard vehicle for the Rock, so he should have been willing to adjust his paycheck accordingly. That’s not to discourage an actor from trying something new or playing against type, but any bold cinematic bets become a whole lot riskier with a $50 million price tag. Given the money on the line, A24 decided to open the film in over 3,000 theaters nationwide rather than build buzz with a traditional platform release. Since studios and theater owners split ticket sales 50-50, ‘The Smashing Machine’ requires above $100 million to breakeven. That’s not a problem for most of Johnson’s filmography, but it’s a benchmark that only three A24 movies have ever achieved. And international audiences might not come the rescue.
According to David A. Gross, who runs the FranchiseRe movie consulting firm, “Sports dramas do not travel well overseas. Each country has its own sports myths and dreams. American wrestling is a local phenomenon, and that will limit it abroad.”
Stand Up and Jeer
In early September, ‘The Smashing Machine’ was tracking a debut of $17 million, a decent figure in no small part because of Johnson’s broad appeal. Heading into opening weekend, however, projections dropped to $15 million with some anticipating a start as low as $8 million. Even that was too lofty. On Saturday, estimates were lowered again to $6.5 million and revised again on Sunday to $6 million. Rival studios think the three-day figure will be softer (closer to $5.5 million) by the time the number is finalized on Monday.
A big factor is probably an obvious one: Poor word-of-mouth. Attendance started to stall once audiences started to see and talk about the film. Now ‘The Smashing Machine’ is projected to reach $15 million domestically by the end of its theatrical run. Ouch.
Lost in Translation
When ‘The Smashing Machine’ premiered at Venice, the film was embraced with a lengthy standing ovation and hailed as an Oscar contender. Benny Safdie took home the festival’s prize for best director. But ‘The Smashing Machine’ learned the hard way that festival buzz doesn’t always translate to box office dollars. It’s unclear now if the disastrous commercial turnout will hurt the movie’s awards chances, but some films are just better enjoyed on the Lido.
Can-Miss Cinema
Theater owners can’t stress it enough: Audiences need to feel a sense of urgency. Movies that break out at the box office tend to become part of the cultural conversation. When that happens, people feel compelled to see a film in its opening weekend—or face some serious FOMO. In this case, marketing for ‘The Smashing Machine’ didn’t successfully create a “why now” moment.
Taylor Fever?
Taylor Swift was this weekend’s big box office champion as ‘The Official Release Party of a Showgirl’ was No. 1 with $33 million. That mighty figure is even more impressive considering the pop star’s cinematic event wasn’t announced until two weeks ago. It’s true that ‘Showgirl’ took some of the bookings for premium large format screens that A24 was expecting for ‘The Smashing Machine.’ But analysts believe that figure was nominal if anything.
According to Shawn Robbins, director of movie analytics at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory, “There’s not a significant audience crossover between Taylor Swift’s fanbase and a male-driven sports drama. Maybe a small degree of premium-large-format screens weren’t available, but I don’t think it’s related to ‘The Smashing Machine’s’ underperformance.”
In conclusion, ‘The Smashing Machine’s’ box office failure can be attributed to several factors, including an identity crisis in its target audience, an unjustifiably high production cost, poor word-of-mouth, a disconnect between festival buzz and general audience appeal, and a lack of urgency in its marketing campaign. The unexpected competition from Taylor Swift’s concert film further compounded its woes, but was not the primary cause of its underperformance.
This box office flop serves as a cautionary tale for future film productions. It underscores the importance of aligning a film’s marketing with its intended audience, managing production costs effectively, and creating a sense of urgency that compels viewers to see the film in theaters. The film’s failure ultimately reveals missteps in targeting and marketing the film towards a cohesive audience.
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