The Washington Commanders are set to face off against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, November 2, 2025. As fans and bettors gear up for this Week 9 matchup, player prop bets are gaining immense popularity. Among the players drawing significant attention is Commanders running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt. With the Seahawks favored by three points and a game total of 48.5, analysts are closely examining Croskey-Merritt’s potential performance.
This article will delve into the best Jacory Croskey-Merritt prop bets for the game, focusing on rushing yards. Betting insights are provided by Alex Hunter, a seasoned expert in NFL prop analysis. This analysis considers Croskey-Merritt’s recent performance, the Seahawks’ robust defense, and the game script’s potential impact on his rushing volume. Let’s dive into the details and uncover a promising betting opportunity for this contest.
Commanders vs. Seahawks: A Statistical Preview
The Commanders are hosting the Seahawks, with Seattle favored by three points. The game has an over/under of 48.5 points, suggesting a potentially high-scoring affair. However, the key to unlocking value in player props lies in understanding individual matchups and usage rates. This is especially true for running backs like Jacory Croskey-Merritt, whose performance is heavily influenced by game flow and defensive schemes.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Seahawks are coming off a bye week, which means they are well-rested and prepared. This could spell trouble for the Commanders’ offense, particularly the running game. Bettors should consider these factors when evaluating Croskey-Merritt’s prop bets, especially his rushing yardage total.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Under 44.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
Alex Hunter identifies his top prop bet as Jacory Croskey-Merritt UNDER 44.5 rushing yards. Several factors support this prediction. First, Croskey-Merritt has struggled in recent games, recording only 33 and 25 rushing yards in his last two outings. Second, the Seahawks boast the league’s best rush defense, allowing a mere 3.3 yards per rush. They also excel at limiting YAC (yards after contact) and preventing long runs. Given these statistics, it’s clear that this is a tough matchup for the young running back.
Additionally, the game script favors Seattle, with the Commanders being three-point underdogs. In games where the Commanders trail, Croskey-Merritt’s usage decreases significantly. In losses this season, he’s averaging only 10 carries for 36.6 rushing yards per game, with a 45.8% snap rate. This indicates that he struggles to produce as a rusher in negative game scripts, making it likely that he will fall short of 44.5 rushing yards on Sunday night. All odds and lines are provided by DraftKings and are subject to change.
Seahawks’ Dominant Run Defense
The Seattle Seahawks’ defense has been a major factor in limiting opposing running games this season. As the best rush defense in the league, they give up the fewest yards per rush (3.3). Furthermore, their ability to minimize yards after contact (YAC) and limit explosive runs makes them a formidable opponent for any running back. Seattle has allowed the fewest YAC on rushes (329) and the fewest rushes of 10+ yards (eight).
This stout run defense is particularly concerning for Croskey-Merritt, who has struggled to find consistent success on the ground. The Seahawks’ defensive line is disciplined, and their linebackers are quick to fill gaps and make tackles. Unless the Commanders can establish a strong passing game, it will be difficult for Croskey-Merritt to find running lanes against this Seattle front.
Game Script and Croskey-Merritt’s Volume
The projected game script also plays a crucial role in Croskey-Merritt’s potential output. With the Commanders being three-point underdogs, they will likely need to pass more frequently to keep pace with the Seahawks. This reduces the number of carries available for Croskey-Merritt, impacting his total rushing yards. In losses this season, Croskey-Merritt is only averaging 10 carries for 36.6 rushing yards per game with a 45.8% snap rate (five games).
Given the likelihood of a negative game script, Croskey-Merritt’s touches could be limited, making it difficult for him to surpass 44.5 rushing yards. Betting on the under in this scenario aligns with the statistical trends and the expected flow of the game. This is a key factor to consider when placing your prop bets for this contest.
Final Thoughts on Croskey-Merritt’s Prop Bet
In conclusion, betting on Jacory Croskey-Merritt to go UNDER 44.5 rushing yards appears to be a solid wager based on the available data and analysis. The Seahawks’ top-tier run defense, combined with the potential for a negative game script for the Commanders, makes it difficult for Croskey-Merritt to achieve a high rushing total. Furthermore, his recent struggles on the ground add to the likelihood of him falling short of this mark.
As always, it’s essential to monitor any last-minute injury news or changes in the weather that could impact the game. However, given the current information, this prop bet offers an intriguing opportunity for those looking to add excitement to Sunday’s Commanders-Seahawks matchup. Remember to gamble responsibly and always consider the risks before placing any bets.
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