The Black Death, a devastating pandemic that swept through Europe in 1347, wiped out over half the continent’s population, leaving a profound impact on societies and even halting ongoing wars. For centuries, the origins of this cataclysmic event have been debated. Now, groundbreaking research suggests a surprising trigger: a volcanic eruption.
According to the study, a significant volcanic eruption, or possibly a series of eruptions, around 1345 caused a global cooling effect. This climate shift led to widespread crop failures across Europe. Desperate for food, wealthy Italian city-states like Florence and Venice turned to importing grain from other regions. Unbeknownst to them, these shipments carried a deadly stowaway: fleas infected with the plague.
This article delves into the intricate details of this new theory, exploring the evidence linking the volcanic eruption to the plague’s arrival. We’ll examine the climate data, historical records, and trade routes that paint a compelling picture of how a natural disaster may have inadvertently unleashed one of history’s deadliest pandemics.
Volcanic Eruption and Climate Shift
The new theory proposes that volcanic eruptions dimmed global temperatures for several years, triggering a sudden climate shift that severely impacted European harvests. The research highlights that a volcanic eruption can inject sulfur into the stratosphere, which blocks sunlight and leads to cooling, according to Henry Fell, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Nottingham and the University of York in England. This effect can last for several years following major eruptions.
To investigate volcanic activity during the 14th century, researchers analyzed tree ring records, ice core data, and historical observations. All three sources pointed to a cooling period and a Mediterranean famine between 1345 and 1347, coinciding with the plague’s emergence in Europe. The team’s analysis of ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica revealed that 1345 had the 18th-strongest sulfur signal in the past 2,000 years, exceeding even the amount of material injected into the stratosphere by Mount Pinatubo.
Tree rings from the same period exhibited biological stains known as “blue rings,” indicative of stress and a cold spell. Furthermore, historical accounts from China, Japan, Germany, France, and Italy reported reduced sunshine and increased cloudiness during this time.
“This paper, I think, is really good for being quite specific on the mechanism that’s driving it,” said Fell. “We can see grain trade increasing from these ports, and the cause of it is climate.”
Grain Trade and the Spread of the Plague
As crop failures intensified, Italian city-states like Florence and Venice, despite their wealth and established trade networks, faced dwindling options. They turned to importing grain from the Black Sea, the only remaining source with sufficient supplies. This decision, while intended to prevent mass starvation, inadvertently introduced plague-infected fleas to Europe.
Martin Bauch, an author of the study and a medieval historian at the Leibniz Institute for the History and Culture of Eastern Europe in Germany, explained that Florence’s leaders were proud of their ability to feed both their citizens and the influx of famine refugees. However, they were unaware of the danger lurking within the imported grain shipments. “They couldn’t have an idea of what danger was there,” he said.
Historical records confirm reports of crop failures and high wheat prices during the cooling period, with severe famine affecting Spain, southern France, Italy, Egypt, and the eastern Mediterranean. The Italian city-states, recognizing the urgency, began importing grain from the Black Sea in 1347.
“They really start to realize in 1347, ‘We have to import from the Black Sea. That’s the last place where they still have enough grain for our needs,’” Bauch said. “Of course, they’re not aware of how the plague gets to them. I have records from Venice in 1349, and they’re really satisfied, and they say, ‘Look, in the last famine, the Black Sea grain really saved us, and that worked very well.’”
Previous Research and Evidence
Past research on the plague’s origins has relied on written accounts, archaeological evidence, and genetic clues. In 2022, scientists discovered DNA evidence of the bacterium that causes the plague in a region far east of Europe. Grave markers indicated that many individuals buried in 1338 and 1339, approximately a decade before the plague reached Europe, had died of “pestilence.”
The same research group also found that marmots living in the Tian Shan mountain range near the burial site carry a closely related strain of the bacterium, suggesting that the Black Death may have originated in that region before spreading elsewhere. While previous research has suggested climate shifts could be responsible for introductions of the plague at various points in history, most studies were vague about it.
According to Fell, the new study could explain what happened next, adding that he thought the authors made a convincing argument that a volcano was to blame. This study is the first to outline in detail the potential role of a volcanic eruption.
The Plague’s Re-emergence and Impact
After its initial outbreak in Europe, the plague re-emerged for centuries, profoundly impacting human history. From 1347 to 1353, it killed as much as 60% of the population in parts of Europe, making it one of the deadliest periods in recorded history.
The research offers a historical example of the way that changes in the climate can alter human societies and animal ecosystems in hard-to-predict ways and with incredible downstream consequences. The new study could explain what happened next, Fell said, adding that he thought the authors made a convincing argument that a volcano was to blame.
“In a European context, it’s so important to our history,” Fell said. “Any study where you’re looking at a long time period across Europe, there’ll be a plague.”
Conclusion
The recent study offers a compelling new perspective on the Black Death’s origins, linking a volcanic eruption to the climate shifts that facilitated the plague’s arrival in Europe. The research highlights the intricate connections between natural events, human actions, and the spread of disease. The actions of Florence’s leaders prevented mass starvation — tens of thousands of famine refugees migrated there, and the city was able to feed them in addition to its own citizens. But the imports unwittingly ushered in a pandemic.
By analyzing tree ring records, ice core data, and historical accounts, the researchers have built a strong case for the role of a tropical volcanic eruption in triggering a chain of events that led to one of history’s deadliest pandemics. This research underscores the importance of understanding the complex interplay between climate, trade, and disease, and serves as a reminder of the far-reaching consequences of seemingly isolated events. The study could explain what happened next, Fell said, adding that he thought the authors made a convincing argument that a volcano was to blame.
While the study does not definitively prove the volcanic eruption as the sole cause of the Black Death, it provides a valuable contribution to our understanding of this pivotal moment in history. The research offers a historical example of the way that changes in the climate can alter human societies and animal ecosystems in hard-to-predict ways and with incredible downstream consequences.
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