Hurricane Priscilla is currently churning off the coast of Mexico, and forecasters are closely monitoring its potential impact on the United States. As the 16th named storm of the 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, Priscilla is expected to intensify, possibly reaching Category 2 hurricane status. While the storm’s path remains uncertain, regions already grappling with drought conditions in the Southwest could experience localized flooding.
This article delves into the projected path of Hurricane Priscilla, its potential intensity, and the areas in the U.S. that might be affected. We’ll explore the warnings issued by the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service, providing you with the most up-to-date information to stay informed and prepared. Understanding the potential impacts, from heavy rainfall to life-threatening swells, is crucial for residents in the affected regions.
Hurricane Priscilla’s Current Status
As of Monday, October 6, Hurricane Priscilla was located approximately 240 miles south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. The storm’s maximum sustained winds were around 85 mph, and it was moving north-northwest at about 5 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Fla. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita.
The NHC forecasts that Priscilla will strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane and could even approach major hurricane status. Residents in southwestern Mexico and southern Baja California Sur are advised to monitor the storm closely as it moves offshore and parallel to the coast.
Quote from NHC: “Priscilla is expected to become a Category 2 hurricane and could approach major hurricane status within the next couple of days.”
This intensification poses a significant threat to coastal communities, with the potential for heavy rains, gusty winds, and dangerous ocean conditions.
Potential Impact on the U.S.
While the storm’s center is expected to remain offshore, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva suggests that Priscilla could still impact the United States. The primary concern is a tropical surge of moisture moving into the Southwest, which could bring localized flooding to areas already experiencing severe drought.
The National Weather Service (NWS) offices in Flagstaff, Ariz., San Diego, and Las Vegas have all issued warnings about the potential impacts of Priscilla. Western and central Arizona could see flooding starting on Thursday, Oct. 9, potentially continuing through the weekend. Uncertainty remains about the extent of Priscilla’s impact on the San Diego region, but the potential for precipitation is acknowledged. Las Vegas is also bracing for increasing chances of precipitation and cooler temperatures.
Quote from Alex DaSilva: “Despite the storm losing organization, a tropical surge of moisture is expected to move into the Southwest late this week or over the weekend. While widespread flooding is not expected in the Southwest at this time, some localized flooding can occur.”
Residents in these areas should stay informed and take necessary precautions to protect themselves and their property from potential flooding.
Forecast and Weakening
Although Priscilla is expected to intensify in the short term, forecasters predict that it will begin to weaken around the middle of the week. As the system moves over cooler waters, the NHC anticipates a “steady to rapid weakening” to commence within 2-3 days.
This weakening trend offers some reassurance, but the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding in the Southwest remains a concern. Even as the storm loses organization, the surge of moisture it brings could still lead to significant impacts.
Continuous monitoring of the storm’s progress and adherence to official warnings are crucial to mitigating potential risks.
Baja California Sur Concerns
Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to affect portions of Baja California Sur around Tuesday, Oct. 7, and Wednesday, Oct. 8. The NHC has warned of potential flash flooding in areas of higher terrain due to heavy rainfall associated with Priscilla.
“Life-threatening” swells and rip currents generated by Priscilla are already impacting the Mexican coast and will reach the coasts of the southern Baja California peninsula on Monday. These dangerous ocean conditions pose a significant risk to swimmers and boaters.
Residents and visitors in Baja California Sur should heed warnings from local authorities and avoid coastal areas during the storm’s passage.
Conclusion
Hurricane Priscilla, the 16th named storm of the 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, poses a potential threat to both Mexico and the United States. While the storm is expected to weaken as it moves over cooler waters, the risk of localized flooding in the U.S. Southwest remains a concern. Baja California Sur is also bracing for tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and dangerous ocean conditions.
Staying informed and following official warnings from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service are essential for residents in the potentially affected areas. As climate change continues to influence weather patterns, understanding and preparing for these types of events becomes increasingly important.
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