The highly anticipated horror sequel, ‘The Black Phone 2,’ is poised to dominate the box office, potentially marking a turning point for Blumhouse after a series of underperforming releases. Starring Ethan Hawke, the film aims to capture audiences with its chilling narrative and suspenseful atmosphere. Industry analysts are closely watching its opening weekend performance, with estimates suggesting a significant debut. This article delves into the projected box office numbers, the context of Blumhouse’s recent performance, and the broader landscape of the October movie season.
The success of ‘The Black Phone 2’ could signal a resurgence for the horror genre and reaffirm Blumhouse’s position as a leading producer of commercially successful thrillers. As movie theaters navigate an evolving entertainment landscape, the performance of this sequel will be a key indicator of audience appetite for horror films. This analysis will provide an in-depth look at the factors influencing the film’s potential success and its implications for the film industry.
‘Black Phone 2’: Box Office Predictions
Industry experts predict ‘The Black Phone 2’ will debut with a robust $23 million to $29 million across 3,200 North American theaters. However, cautious studio sources suggest a more conservative $18 million opening weekend, considering recent tracking inaccuracies. Distributed by Universal with a $30 million budget, these projections mirror the original ‘Black Phone,’ which opened to $23 million in 2021 amidst recovering theater attendance. The first film became a global hit, grossing $161 million.
These estimates indicate strong audience interest in the horror sequel. If ‘The Black Phone 2’ meets or exceeds expectations, it could rejuvenate the box office and set a positive tone for the remainder of the fall movie season. The film’s performance will be a critical test of the horror genre’s continued appeal and Blumhouse’s ability to deliver commercially viable films.
Blumhouse’s Recent Performance
Blumhouse, known for its high-profit horror films like ‘Paranormal Activity,’ ‘The Purge,’ ‘Get Out,’ and ‘Halloween,’ has recently faced a series of box office disappointments. In 2025, releases such as ‘Wolf Man’ ($34 million against a $25 million budget), ‘The Woman in the Yard’ ($23 million against a $12 million budget), ‘Drop’ ($28 million against an $8 million budget), and ‘M3GAN 2.0’ ($39 million against a $25 million budget) have underperformed. Despite avoiding major financial disasters due to its low-cost business model, Blumhouse seeks to restore its reputation with ‘The Black Phone 2’ and the upcoming ‘Five Nights at Freddy’s 2.’
The success of ‘The Black Phone 2’ is crucial for Blumhouse to regain momentum. A strong performance would reaffirm the studio’s ability to produce profitable horror films and reassure investors and partners. The company, in partnership with Universal, is counting on these upcoming releases to reverse its recent slump and showcase its continued relevance in the horror genre.
Market Context: Sluggish October Box Office
The release of ‘The Black Phone 2’ occurs during a period of sluggish box office performance in October. The film is expected to outperform last weekend’s leader, Disney’s ‘Tron: Ares,’ and Aziz Ansari’s new comedy, ‘Good Fortune.’ Lionsgate’s ‘Good Fortune’ is projected to earn $6 million to $8 million from 2,985 theaters, against a $30 million budget. The comedy is written and directed by Ansari and stars Keanu Reeves, Seth Rogen, and Keke Palmer.
The overall outlook for October remains subdued, with significant box office recovery not anticipated until later in the fall season. Movie theater attendance is expected to increase with the release of films like ‘Predator: Badlands,’ ‘Now You See Me: Now You Don’t,’ ‘Wicked: For Good,’ and ‘Zootopia 2.’ The industry is looking forward to the holiday season to drive substantial box office results.
Aziz Ansari’s ‘Good Fortune’
‘Good Fortune’ revolves around a body swap facilitated by a well-intentioned angel (Keanu Reeves) between a struggling gig worker (Aziz Ansari) and a wealthy venture capitalist (Seth Rogen). Variety’s Peter Debruge praised Reeves’ performance, calling him the movie’s MVP. He added that beyond the jokes, ‘Good Fortune’ offers a working-class critique of contemporary capitalism.
This film adds an element of comedy to the weekend’s releases, providing an alternative to the horror and sci-fi genres. Its performance will be closely watched to gauge audience interest in Ansari’s directorial debut and the appeal of its unique premise. A successful run for ‘Good Fortune’ could broaden the audience base and contribute to a more diverse box office landscape.
Industry Analysis and Expectations
Comscore’s head of marketplace trends, Paul Dergarabedian, notes that the industry is eagerly awaiting the holiday season to deliver substantial box office returns. With Warner Bros.’ ‘Mortal Kombat II’ delayed to 2026, the focus shifts to the upcoming November and December releases to revitalize the movie theater business.
The performance of ‘The Black Phone 2’ will be a key indicator of the current market’s strength and audience preferences. A strong opening could inject optimism into the industry and pave the way for more successful releases in the coming months. The industry is hopeful that the film will meet expectations and set a positive trend for the remainder of the year.
Conclusion
In summary, ‘The Black Phone 2’ is anticipated to lead the box office this weekend, potentially reversing Blumhouse’s recent downtrend. Strong opening weekend estimates, ranging from $23 million to $29 million, highlight significant audience interest. While cautious studio projections suggest a more conservative $18 million, the film’s performance is crucial for Blumhouse to regain its footing in the horror genre.
As the industry looks towards the holiday season for a major box office boost, the success of ‘The Black Phone 2’ could set a positive tone. Its performance, along with that of other new releases like ‘Good Fortune,’ will be closely watched as indicators of audience preferences and the overall health of the movie theater business. The coming weeks will reveal whether ‘The Black Phone 2’ can indeed end Blumhouse’s downtrodden streak and revitalize the box office.
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