The crisp autumn air signals the arrival of more than just football and the holidays; it heralds the dawn of college basketball season! As we stand just ten days away from the tip-off of the 2025-2026 season, anticipation is building. The Kentucky Wildcats have already provided a glimpse of their potential with the Blue-White Scrimmage, Pro Day and Big Blue Madness now in the rearview mirror. What awaits them is an exhibition showdown against #1 Purdue at Rupp Arena. College basketball is nearly here!
To celebrate reaching the 10-day mark, let’s dive into five of the most compelling storylines as we approach the season. Every five days, we’ll unveil five more headlines, culminating in a comprehensive preview of 25 key points before the season officially begins on November 3rd. Stay tuned for in-depth analysis, including my annual College Basketball Manifesto, in the coming weeks. Get ready, folks, it’s almost time!
Evan Miya Simulated the Season 10,000 Times
Evan Miya ran 10,000 simulations for the upcoming season. Here’s a look at key takeaways from the simulation:
- Top Teams: Only six teams had a chance to finish #1: Duke, Florida, Houston, Michigan, Purdue, and UConn.
- Least Uncertainty: Florida, Purdue, and UConn showed the smallest variance between their best and worst possible finishes.
- High Variance: Auburn, Duke, Kansas, and North Carolina had the highest levels of variance in potential outcomes.
- SEC Dominance: The Southeastern Conference is projected to be the most competitive conference in college basketball.
- Kentucky’s Outlook: Kentucky had a ceiling of second and a floor of 46th, with a median finish of 15th. Evan Miya projects Kentucky to start the season ranked 11th.
- Mid-Major Standouts: Liberty (34th), Yale (37th), and McNeese (40th) stood out with the highest potential finishes among true mid-major programs.
Coaches Ready to Take a Leap
Which coaches are poised to land bigger, more prestigious jobs next season? Last year, Alan Huss of High Point was highlighted and is now the coach-in-waiting at Creighton. Here are five coaches to watch this season:
- Chris Gerlufsen (San Francisco): Following Kyle Smith’s departure for Washington State and Todd Golden’s move to Florida, Gerlufsen could be next in line if he leads the Dons to an NCAA Tournament berth.
- John Groce (Akron): After guiding Ohio to the Sweet 16 in 2012 and building Akron into a mid-major power, Groce deserves another shot at the power conference level.
- Todd Phillips (Utah Valley): With Grand Canyon’s departure from the WAC, Phillips has a clear path to an NCAA Tournament appearance.
- Leon Rice (Boise State): A first-round upset in the NCAA Tournament could be Rice’s ticket to a high-major job. He is 216-177 in 15 years at Boise State.
- Takayo Siddle (UNC Wilmington): After leading UNC Wilmington to the NCAA Tournament, another CAA Championship and postseason berth would likely propel Siddle to a high-major program.
Best Mid-Major Players to Watch
Here are some of the standout players to keep an eye on at the mid-major level:
- Robbie Avila (Saint Louis): The 6’10” skilled center averaged 17.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game.
- Miles Byrd (San Diego State): Byrd played in four games as a freshman and came off of the bench averaging 4.0 points per game as a sophomore.
- Mason Falslev (Utah State): The 6’3″ guard averaged 15.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 2.3 steals and shot 53-136 (39.0%) from three-point range.
- Javohn Garcia (McNeese): Garcia averaged 12.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.5 steals per game in 2024-2025.
- Chase Walker (Illinois State): Walker averaged 15.2 points and 6.2 rebounds per game as a sophomore.
Matt Norlander’s Top 100 and 1
Matt Norlander of CBS Sports releases his annual preseason Top 100 and 1 ranking. Here are some notable rankings:
- Kentucky (#3): Norlander is very high on Kentucky, citing the return of Otega Oweh, the additions of Jaland Lowe and Jayden Quaintance, and defensive improvements.
- Kansas (#7): Kansas made Norlander look smart with a strong exhibition performance, led by freshman Darryn Peterson.
- Florida (#11): Norlander is lower on the defending national champions due to concerns about the backcourt.
- BYU (#15): Led by freshman sensation AJ Dybantsa, BYU has potential, but Norlander is more reserved in his expectations.
Cameron Boozer and AJ Dybansta Live Up to the Hype
The nation’s most heralded recruits have lived up to their lofty expectations in exhibition games. Here’s a look:
- Cameron Boozer (Duke): 33 points, 12 rebounds, and 4 assists.
- AJ Dybantsa (BYU): 30 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 steals in his debut. Backed it up with 18 points, 8 rebounds, 3 steals, and 3 blocks.
- Darryn Peterson (Kansas): Scored 24 of his 26 points in the first half.
As the college basketball season approaches, these storylines provide a glimpse into the excitement and potential that awaits. From team simulations to coaching prospects and standout players, the stage is set for another thrilling year on the hardwood. Keep an eye on these key aspects, and prepare for the madness to unfold!
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