The Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardians are set to clash in a pivotal series this weekend, with both teams teetering on the edge of postseason contention. This series isn’t just about wins and losses; it’s a crucial juncture that could define their strategies heading into the trade deadline. Will they emerge as buyers, bolstering their rosters for a playoff push, or will they become sellers, parting ways with key players to build for the future? This preview dives deep into the key matchups, player performances, and potential trade implications surrounding this AL Central showdown.
As the Royals and Guardians lock horns, the stakes are incredibly high. For both teams, a strong showing could inject momentum and clarity into their season, solidifying their position as contenders. Conversely, a disappointing performance could force a reassessment of their goals, potentially leading to significant roster changes. This series promises to be a compelling watch, filled with drama and implications that extend far beyond the diamond.
AL Central Bubble Teams: Guardians vs. Royals
The Guardians find themselves three games shy of a Wild Card berth, while the Royals trail by an additional 1.5 games. Cleveland has been on a hot streak, securing 11 wins in their last 14 games, bringing their record to an even .500. Despite their recent success, trade rumors are swirling around key players like outfielder Steven Kwan and relievers Cade Smith and Emmanuel Clase. The Royals, too, are facing similar speculation as the trade deadline looms.
Cleveland Guardians (51-51) vs. Kansas City Royals (50-53) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Guardians: 3.85 runs scored/game (26th in MLB), 4.20 runs allowed/game (14th)
Royals: 3.52 runs scored/game (29th), 3.74 runs allowed/game (2nd)
Both teams have struggled offensively, with the Guardians and Royals tied for second-most shutouts in baseball this season at 11. The Guardians’ catching situation has been particularly dire, with catchers collectively hitting .160, marking the worst team batting average for catchers since 2015.
Key Players to Watch in Guardians vs. Royals
Kyle Manzardo has historically performed well against the Royals, boasting a .265/.405/.588 slash line in 11 games. Ángel Martínez has been on a tear this month, hitting .307/.341/.587 with four home runs in 20 games. Daniel Schneerman’s road performance is also noteworthy, as he’s hitting .272/.341/.544 away from home.
On the other hand, Nolan Jones is currently in a slump, hitting .129 over his last nine games. Carlos Santana has struggled against Michael Wacha, with a career .154 average in 13 at-bats. José Ramírez, however, has a strong track record against the Royals, hitting .274/.352/.502 with 31 home runs in 170 games. He’s also a threat on the basepaths, ranking second in the American League with 31 steals.
Defensive Strengths and Weaknesses
Defensively, the Guardians are considered an average team, anchored by Carlos Santana’s Gold Glove-caliber play at first base. However, their outfield defense has been inconsistent, with Martínez and Jones grading below average in Outs Above Average. Catcher Bo Naylor has allowed 54 steals, throwing out 25 percent of attempted base stealers.
Guardians Projected Starting Lineup
Guardians starting lineup
| Starting Lineup | PA | HR | SB | BA | OBA | SLG | wRC+ | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starting Lineup | PA | HR | SB | BA | OBA | SLG | wRC+ | fWAR |
| LF Steven Kwan (L) | 424 | 8 | 11 | .287 | .352 | .410 | 115 | 2.7 |
| CF Angel Martínez (S) | 317 | 9 | 6 | .253 | .280 | .414 | 91 | 0.5 |
| 3B José Ramírez (S) | 422 | 21 | 31 | .297 | .372 | .530 | 145 | 4.5 |
| DH Kyle Manzardo (L) | 319 | 16 | 1 | .223 | .298 | .449 | 106 | 0.6 |
| 1B Carlos Santana (S) | 385 | 11 | 6 | .225 | .319 | .345 | 91 | 0.7 |
| RF Nolan Jones (L) | 289 | 3 | 7 | .220 | .313 | .312 | 80 | -0.1 |
| 2B Daniel Schneermann (L) | 260 | 9 | 7 | .213 | .301 | .374 | 91 | 1.1 |
| SS Brayan Rocchio (S) | 169 | 1 | 2 | .200 | .255 | .287 | 52 | -0.3 |
| C Bo Naylor (L) | 263 | 10 | 1 | .172 | .275 | .357 | 79 | 0.8 |
| Bench | PA | HR | SB | BA | OBA | SLG | wRC+ | fWAR |
| C Austin Hedges (R) | 109 | 3 | 1 | .117 | .215 | .223 | 27 | 0.5 |
| IF Will Wilson (R) | 85 | 0 | 1 | .167 | .250 | .222 | 37 | -0.4 |
| OF Jonathan Rodriguez (R) | 62 | 1 | 0 | .155 | .210 | .293 | 38 | -0.5 |
| DH David Fry (R) | 85 | 4 | 1 | .165 | .224 | .342 | 56 | -0.4 |
Expected Pitching Matchups: Guardians vs. Royals
Gavin Williams, despite having the highest walk rate among starters, has shown flashes of brilliance, including a season-high 11 strikeouts in his last start. His sweeper has been particularly effective, with opponents whiffing 42.6 percent of the time. Tanner Bibee has yet to allow a run against the Royals in two starts, although his ERA on the road is significantly higher than at home. Joey Cantillo, making just his fifth start of the year, will look to extend his longest outing past six innings. His changeup is a weapon, but opponents are hitting .319 against his fastball.
Guardians vs. Royals: Pitching Matchups
Expected pitching matchups
| Friday, July 25, 7:10 CT | ERA | FIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, July 25, 7:10 CT | ERA | FIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | fWAR |
| RHP Gavin Williams | 3.54 | 4.53 | 104.1 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 0.7 |
| RHP Michael Wacha | 3.62 | 3.84 | 112.0 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| Saturday, July 26, 6:10 CT | ERA | FIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | fWAR |
| RHP Tanner Bibee | 4.27 | 4.44 | 116.0 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| LHP Kris Bubic | 2.38 | 2.76 | 113.2 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 3.2 |
| Sunday, July 28, 1:10 CT | ERA | FIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | fWAR |
| LHP Joey Cantillo | 3.91 | 4.07 | 46.0 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 0.2 |
| LHP Noah Cameron | 2.61 | 3.79 | 76.0 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
Guardians Bullpen: Strengths and Weaknesses
The Guardians’ bullpen, while not as dominant as in previous years, still possesses high-leverage arms. Emmanuel Clase remains one of the league’s top relievers, currently ninth in fWAR with 23 saves. However, he has shown vulnerability, having already blown four saves this year. Cade Smith boasts an impressive strikeout rate, while Kolby Allard has struggled to generate strikeouts.
Guardians Bullpen Stats
Guardians bullpen
| Bullpen | ERA | FIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullpen | ERA | FIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | fWAR |
| RHP Emmanuel Clase | 2.74 | 2.25 | 46.0 | 9.2 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| RHP Hunter Gaddis | 3.51 | 3.68 | 41.0 | 10.1 | 3.5 | 0.3 |
| RHP Cade Smith | 3.12 | 2.05 | 43.1 | 13.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| LHP Erik Sabrowski | 1.86 | 3.20 | 9.2 | 14.0 | 5.6 | 0.1 |
| RHP Matt Festa | 5.02 | 3.23 | 28.2 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| RHP Nic Enright | 2.70 | 4.47 | 16.2 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 0.0 |
| RHP Jakob Junis | 3.43 | 3.71 | 42.0 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.2 |
| LHP Kolby Allard | 2.90 | 4.16 | 40.1 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.2 |
Buyers or Sellers? The Stakes for Guardians and Royals
The outcome of this series carries significant weight for both teams. A decisive sweep could solidify one team’s position as a contender, while a mixed result may lead both teams to consider trade offers for their key assets.
Guardians vs. Royals: Series Prediction
As the Guardians and Royals face off, this series will serve as a litmus test for their aspirations this season. The convergence of offensive struggles, pitching inconsistencies, and defensive vulnerabilities, the series may determine their path at the trade deadline. A decisive sweep will significantly influence their trajectory, shaping their identity as either buyers or sellers.
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