The Tampa Bay Rays and Cincinnati Reds face off in the second game of their three-game series at Great American Ball Park. This matchup features a pitching duel between Tampa Bay’s Ryan Pepiot and Cincinnati’s Andrew Abbott. Both teams are looking for a crucial win, and this game promises to be a compelling contest with significant implications for bettors.
Stan Son provides an in-depth preview, prediction, and betting pick for this Saturday showdown. With both pitchers having strengths and weaknesses, understanding their profiles and the opposing lineups is essential for making an informed wager. Let’s dive into the key factors that will determine the outcome of this game.
Ryan Pepiot: Strengths, Weaknesses, and Reverse Splits
Ryan Pepiot brings a blazing fastball, averaging 95 mph, and a solid 11.8% swinging strike rate to the mound. His strikeout rate stands at an impressive 24.2%. However, early in his career, control issues and home runs were a concern. While he reduced his HR/9 from 1.5 to 1.18 last season, it has crept back up to 1.57 this year over 120.1 innings.
Pepiot’s barrel rate is 10.1%, and his hard-hit rate is 42.9%. When combined with a 42% fly-ball rate, this can lead to trouble. His FIP (4.47) is notably higher than his ERA (3.59), suggesting some potential regression. Notably, Pepiot exhibits reverse splits, with a K-BB% 8.7% lower against righties, who have accounted for 13 of the 21 home runs he’s allowed. Furthermore, 17 of those 21 home runs were given up at home.
Pepiot has allowed more than three earned runs in three starts, two of which occurred in his last five outings. He has pitched at least six innings in 15 starts, including his last four. This will be his first time facing the Cincinnati Reds this season. The Reds strike out at the seventh-highest rate against right-handed pitching but boast the 15th-best ISO and the ninth-best wOBA in MLB.
Andrew Abbott: Limiting Contact and Home Runs
Andrew Abbott, a left-hander, averages 92.5 mph on his fastball and sports a 2.13 ERA. However, his strand rate is high at 84.9%, and his FIP is much higher at 3.42. He has a decent swinging strike rate of 10.9% and a chase rate of 29.6%. Abbott excels at limiting hard contact, with an average exit velocity of 88 mph, a barrel rate of 7.5%, and a hard-hit rate of just 32.9%, which ranks fourth-best in MLB. His fly-ball rate is 48.2%, though his HR/FB rate of 7.6% is a career-low and significantly below his career rate of 10.5%.
Abbott has shown neutral splits but has been less effective at home, unsurprising given that Great American Ball Park is known to be hitter-friendly. He has allowed more than three earned runs in three starts, allowing one or fewer in 13 starts. Abbott has pitched at least six innings in eight starts, including a complete-game shutout in Cleveland. This will also be his first time facing the Tampa Bay Rays this season.
The Rays have the 15th-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching and rank 22nd in ISO. Their wOBA is 20th-best in the league.
Bullpen Breakdown: Rays vs. Reds
When it comes to the bullpens, Tampa Bay has the 14th-lowest FIP, while Cincinnati has the 26th-lowest. This disparity could play a crucial role in the later innings, potentially tilting the game in favor of the Rays should it become a close contest.
Great American Ball Park: A Hitter’s Paradise
Great American Ball Park is often referred to as “Great American Small Park” due to its reputation as the second-best venue for home runs, according to Baseball Savant. This park factor is significant, especially considering Pepiot’s issues with hard contact and home runs, and Abbott’s slightly fortunate numbers. He has given up some bombs at home, though. The conditions favor offensive production in this matchup.
Rays at Reds Pick: Best Bet
Given the pitching matchups and the venue, the offenses are poised to capitalize. Pepiot’s vulnerability to hard contact and home runs, combined with Abbott’s potential for regression in a hitter-friendly park, suggests a high-scoring affair. Considering these factors, the best bet is likely on the over for the game’s total runs. Monitor the lines and consider taking the over, capitalizing on the expected offensive output in this matchup.
Final Pick: Over [Total Runs]
Final Thoughts: High-Scoring Potential in Cincinnati
In summary, the Tampa Bay Rays at Cincinnati Reds game on Saturday features two pitchers with contrasting profiles in a venue known for offensive firepower. Ryan Pepiot’s fastball and strikeout ability are offset by his susceptibility to home runs, while Andrew Abbott’s impressive ERA may be unsustainable given his underlying metrics.
With Great American Ball Park’s hitter-friendly conditions, expect both teams to leverage their offensive capabilities. The bullpens add another layer of intrigue, with Tampa Bay holding a slight edge. Ultimately, the game is set up for a high-scoring affair. Keep an eye on the over for total runs, as this promises to be an exciting and potentially lucrative betting opportunity.
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